This Week in Intelligent Investing
How Smaller Companies Beat Giants | Equity Research: How to Detect BS

How Smaller Companies Beat Giants | Equity Research: How to Detect BS

January 16, 2021

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

How smaller companies can beat giant corporations: Elliot Turner argues that singular focus around a core essence allows smaller companies to compete successfully against much larger competitors. Examples include Roku vs. Google/Amazon, Grubhub vs. Uber, and Dropbox vs. Google/Microsoft.

How to detect "BS" in company communications: Phil Ordway talks about "baloney" detection, or how not to be swayed by communications intended to sugarcoat, obfuscate or deceive investors. We discuss questionable practices and communication methods employed by some companies.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Investing Amid Unprecedented Change | Building From First Principles

Investing Amid Unprecedented Change | Building From First Principles

January 9, 2021

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

Investing amid change: Phil Ordway addresses a listener question on change. Buffett famously said that he seeks out businesses exhibiting a lack of change. The listener asks whether this principle remains relevant today. We discuss.

Building from first principles: Elliot Turner talks about the difference between having to evolve existing infrastructure vs. building something from first principles. Elliot relates this distinction to the food and logistics sector.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Wholesale Transfer Pricing $NFLX $SPOT $FUBO | Expectations for 2021

Wholesale Transfer Pricing $NFLX $SPOT $FUBO | Expectations for 2021

December 28, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

Wholesale transfer pricing: Elliot Turner talks about business models that involve some degree of wholesale transfer pricing. We discuss what works and what doesn't when it comes to creating sustainable business value.

2021 expectations: Phil Ordway talks about the expectations and forecasting games being played by many market participants and so-called experts. We reflect on 2020 and assess market-implied expectations for 2021.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Power of Counterfactual Thinking | Reflexivity as a Valuable Concept in Investing

Power of Counterfactual Thinking | Reflexivity as a Valuable Concept in Investing

December 19, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

The power of counterfactual thinking: Phil Ordway talks about counterfactual thinking as a decision-making framework. We discuss examples and observe that counterfactual thinking might be in rare supply these days.

The theory of reflexivity: Elliot Turner talks about reflexivity as a valuable concept that many value investors have not studied in sufficient detail. We discuss example of reflexivity at work in markets, both historically and currently.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

#Neversell | Subscription Business Models | Financial Services Disruption

#Neversell | Subscription Business Models | Financial Services Disruption

December 12, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

Hashtag neversell: Elliot Turner shares his take on #neversell, a recently trending topic among investors on Twitter. We discuss the significance and merits of #neversell, tying it to related topics, such as long-term investing, how to make a sell decision, and how to invest amid market exuberance.

Subscription business models: Phil Ordway shares insights into recurring revenue models, their features and advantages. We discuss how subscription models create value, but we also examine the potential issues, drawbacks, and risks of such models. We touch on the fitness space as well as Peloton.

Financial services disruption: John responds to a listener question on the significance of the Stripe Treasury announcement. We discuss how innovation and disruption are affecting banking, insurance, and financial services broadly. We debate the outlook for long-term value creation in the sector.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Investing Lessons from the 1930s | “Slow Hunches” in Business and Investing

Investing Lessons from the 1930s | “Slow Hunches” in Business and Investing

December 6, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

Investment lessons from the 1930s: Phil Ordway shares insights from a little-known book, Frederick Lewis Allen's "Since Yesterday: The 1930's in America." We discuss historical parallels and examine how insights from past episodes can help us become better investors today.

"Slow hunches" in business and investing: Elliot Turner presents a key concept from Steven Johnson's book, "Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation." We discuss how so-called slow hunches manifest themselves in business and investing.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Questions to Ask CEOs | Industry Research | Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence

Questions to Ask CEOs | Industry Research | Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence

November 28, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

Questions to ask management; doing industry research: Elliot Turner responds to a listener question on the investment research process -- how to talk to management teams, how to utilize industry experts, and how to develop industry-specific knowledge. We discuss some of our favorite questions for CEOs and how we try to get smarter on various industries.

Hindsight bias and overconfidence: Phil Ordway observes that the exuberant market environment has led many investors to become overly confident, thereby displaying both hindsight bias and unwarranted certainty about the future. We discuss some of the causes and pitfalls of overconfidence and the need to maintain a common-sense approach to investing.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Crowdsourcing Ideas | Yellow and Red Flags When Analyzing a Company

Crowdsourcing Ideas | Yellow and Red Flags When Analyzing a Company

November 21, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

Crowdsourcing investment ideas: Phil Ordway shares his thoughts on using social media and other venues to source ideas. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of such an approach. Phil also addresses a listener question around having "Board-level knowledge" of a company.

Yellow and red flags when assessing a business: Elliot Turner responds to a listener question on the things that might give an investor pause when it comes to moving forward with a potential investment. We discuss some yellow and red flags that may serve as idea disqualifiers.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Idea Generation | Berkshire Hathaway Q3 Update | Bond-Style Equity Analysis

Idea Generation | Berkshire Hathaway Q3 Update | Bond-Style Equity Analysis

November 14, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

The equity investment idea generation process: Elliot Turner responds to a listener question on idea generation and explains how he finds investment candidates. We discuss the merits of quantitative screening and other methods of uncovering potential opportunities.

Quarterly update on Berkshire Hathaway: Chris Bloomstran takes a look at Berkshire's Q3 performance and notable events, including share repurchases, an acquisition of gas transmission and storage assets, apparent portfolio changes, growth capex, and a lengthening of debt at low rates.

Duration and bond-style analysis: Phil Ordway reflects on recent market action to describe the concept of duration and how bond-style analysis can inform equity investment decisions. We discuss the implications of assessing common stocks using a fixed income analysis lens.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Equity Incentives and Long-Term Investing I Reverse DCF as an Analytical Tool

Equity Incentives and Long-Term Investing I Reverse DCF as an Analytical Tool

November 7, 2020

In this episode, John Mihaljevic hosts a discussion of:

How equity incentives affect long-term returns: Phil Ordway takes a look at some of the more excessive equity-based compensation practices at public companies, particularly in the tech sector, and how they may dilute long-term investors' returns. We discuss Twitter and selected other case studies.

Reverse DCF analysis as an analytical tool: Elliot Turner explains how he uses so-called "reverse" discounted cash flow (DCF) models in order to isolate the key variables that drive a company's valuation. One of Elliot's preferred analytical tools, reverse DCFs enable him to assess market-implied expectations and to develop a high-conviction variant thesis.

Chris Bloomstran rejoins us in the next episode.

Enjoy the discussion!

The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

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